When the downsides are very minimal or zero, you should be more concerned with taking lots of chances–running lots of “experiments”–than being “right” with the risks you decide to take.
Excellent article. I especially liked how you delineated the difference between a negative synthetic hold and the odds of both bets being +EV.
Another for the list at the end of real-life freerolls: Leave home xx minutes earlier than planned for your commute to work. Avoids feeling rushed if you hit traffic/issues. If you're driving, you won't feel the need to speed or drive hyper-aggressively, which are both highly negative EV actions. Worst case, you run into zero issues and get to work early - now you're perceived as a go-getter.
Excellent article. I especially liked how you delineated the difference between a negative synthetic hold and the odds of both bets being +EV.
Another for the list at the end of real-life freerolls: Leave home xx minutes earlier than planned for your commute to work. Avoids feeling rushed if you hit traffic/issues. If you're driving, you won't feel the need to speed or drive hyper-aggressively, which are both highly negative EV actions. Worst case, you run into zero issues and get to work early - now you're perceived as a go-getter.
Thanks for reading, John!
1. Love this piece.
2. Where you been? Welcome back. Keep writing my guy.
Thanks Chris! Been focused on non-public stuff the past few years but getting back into writing mode I think.