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Nick Byrd's avatar

The beginning remarks of this reminded me quite a bit of No Country for Old Men, where Anton used coin flips to determine his actions while simultaneously discussing how inconsequential each individual decision was to him - they just...were.

This was a very compelling article, made me think and gave me an updated perspective on a "simple" concept. That's all I can ask for on a Thursday morning!

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Spencer's avatar

Some interesting ideas, Jonathan, but I think especially regarding 5 & 6 you might be underestimating the possibility that the tails are non-linear & that therefore it may worth the additional research. I think that that is often where the most money made - https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/alex-bird-professional-gambler/ and https://www.theguardian.com/sport/1999/jun/02/cricket11 are example I've always liked but you could add Ed Thorp or some of the people who got the better of state lotteries in the U.S. Sure, these are seriously unusual examples and not the way to bet, but makes the point about possible non-linearity of the distribution of unknown outcomes.

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