The beginning remarks of this reminded me quite a bit of No Country for Old Men, where Anton used coin flips to determine his actions while simultaneously discussing how inconsequential each individual decision was to him - they just...were.
This was a very compelling article, made me think and gave me an updated perspective on a "simple" concept. That's all I can ask for on a Thursday morning!
Some interesting ideas, Jonathan, but I think especially regarding 5 & 6 you might be underestimating the possibility that the tails are non-linear & that therefore it may worth the additional research. I think that that is often where the most money made - https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/alex-bird-professional-gambler/ and https://www.theguardian.com/sport/1999/jun/02/cricket11 are example I've always liked but you could add Ed Thorp or some of the people who got the better of state lotteries in the U.S. Sure, these are seriously unusual examples and not the way to bet, but makes the point about possible non-linearity of the distribution of unknown outcomes.
I hope you didn't actually use Paint for that flowchart. Mind mapping software can build things like that much quicker. Lucid Chart (https://www.lucidchart.com/pages/examples/mind_mapping_software) lets you make flowcharts and export them as images for free.
Why do I not care or have no opinion on almost everything? Why do I think most decisions really don’t matter very much? - Because of the date and time you were born.
Years ago a friend talked about the world as maximizers and satisfiers. Let's say we are looking for a couch. I find one that is comfortable, fits the space, budget, and looks good enough. Problem is its the first one I look at. As a satisfier I buy the couch. A maximizer might look for another two weeks to make sure there is not a couch that is superior across some of the attributes, and still may land up with the first couch. Wondering how this maps to your framework, could help my marriage.
The beginning remarks of this reminded me quite a bit of No Country for Old Men, where Anton used coin flips to determine his actions while simultaneously discussing how inconsequential each individual decision was to him - they just...were.
This was a very compelling article, made me think and gave me an updated perspective on a "simple" concept. That's all I can ask for on a Thursday morning!
Some interesting ideas, Jonathan, but I think especially regarding 5 & 6 you might be underestimating the possibility that the tails are non-linear & that therefore it may worth the additional research. I think that that is often where the most money made - https://www.honestbettingreviews.com/alex-bird-professional-gambler/ and https://www.theguardian.com/sport/1999/jun/02/cricket11 are example I've always liked but you could add Ed Thorp or some of the people who got the better of state lotteries in the U.S. Sure, these are seriously unusual examples and not the way to bet, but makes the point about possible non-linearity of the distribution of unknown outcomes.
This was a great read
I hope you didn't actually use Paint for that flowchart. Mind mapping software can build things like that much quicker. Lucid Chart (https://www.lucidchart.com/pages/examples/mind_mapping_software) lets you make flowcharts and export them as images for free.
Should save you at least 5 hours.
Why do I not care or have no opinion on almost everything? Why do I think most decisions really don’t matter very much? - Because of the date and time you were born.
Years ago a friend talked about the world as maximizers and satisfiers. Let's say we are looking for a couch. I find one that is comfortable, fits the space, budget, and looks good enough. Problem is its the first one I look at. As a satisfier I buy the couch. A maximizer might look for another two weeks to make sure there is not a couch that is superior across some of the attributes, and still may land up with the first couch. Wondering how this maps to your framework, could help my marriage.